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The presentation of a draft law on raising the age of conscription to the State Duma of Russia indicates that the Kremlin does not plan to carry out full mobilization in the future.

This is the opinion of the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Yesterday, March 13, a draft law appeared in the State Duma providing for the raising of the maximum draft age from 27 to 30 years, and the minimum age – from 18 to 21 years (it will be gradually increased by one year in the period from 2024 to 2026).

“The immediate increase in the maximum age stipulated by the bill is most likely aimed at expanding the age range of conscription to satisfy a certain part of the immediate needs of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, and thus further reducing the general requirements for conscription for military service in Russian society in subsequent years”, – says the report.

According to analysts, the increase in the minimum draft age could indicate that the Kremlin is trying to protect a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social consequences of the hostilities in Ukraine, by spreading these consequences among a group of citizens.

Furthermore, the reduction in the age of conscription could also indicate that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last more than three years.

ISW also believes that such measures indicate the Kremlin’s aversion to the prospect of full mobilisation.

It will be recalled that earlier it was assumed in Ukrainian intelligence that Russia was preparing for another wave of mobilization.

The GUR stated that through several waves of mobilization, the Russian Federation would attempt to assemble an army of up to 2 million soldiers.

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