Historically, the crypto market trend has followed the bitcoin price trend, so making crypto market predictions for 2023 is equivalent to setting them on the bitcoin price trend.
For example, by comparing the total capitalization of the crypto market with that of Bitcoin, it can be seen that over the years the latter has always significantly influenced the former.
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Comparison between Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
Until 2015, which is the year Ethereum was born, Bitcoin’s market cap was always higher than 85% of Bitcoin’s market cap.the entire crypto market. So it was more than obvious that both trends go hand in hand.
But with the arrival Ethereum Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline, although it was back above 90% at the end of 2015.
The turning point occurred in March 2017, or from the time of dominance bitcoins it fell well below 80% for the first time and never returned to those levels.
During 2017, when Bitcoin’s dominance fell from 87% to 39%, its price soared from around $1,000 to around $20,000, a 1,900% increase in less than a year.
It was the second major bullrun in the price of BTC after 2013, and even though its dominance was waning, the crypto market cap trend followed that of Bitcoin, recording a sensational +14,000%.
In the course of 2018, the first post-bubble crypto-bear market (since the one from 2014/2015 mainly involved Bitcoin) saw a simultaneous decline in the price of Bitcoin and the crypto market capitalization.
The minimum price of Bitcoin in 2018 corresponded to the maximum price of July 2017, and the minimum level of the total capitalization of the crypto market returned exactly to that of July. This means that it is no coincidence that the trend of the crypto market in 2018 was very similar to the trend of the price of Bitcoin.
Another bullrun was launched at the end of 2020 and, like the previous one, there was a simultaneous increase in both the price of Bitcoin and the capitalization of crypto markets.
For example, in 2021 the two maximum peaks even coincided, while the minimum peaks in 2022 occurred a month apart, November for Bitcoin and December for the crypto market.
At the moment, it is quite possible that even in 2023 these two trends will go hand in hand, at most a few weeks or months apart.
Bitcoin predictions for 2023
While no prediction of the future price of Bitcoin should be taken as a certainty, 2023 is the third year afterhalving 2020, like 2019, was the third year after the halving in 2016.
Overall, there have only been three bitcoin halvings so far, one every about 4 years, and in all three cases a mega speculative bubble inflated the following year, followed by a burst and a market the following year for about 12 months.
This was the case in 2022 as well as in 2018, so it is likely that the Bitcoin price trend in 2023 could be similar to that of 2019.
If this were the case – and it is not certain – we would expect growth in the middle of the year, followed by a slight rebound at the end of the year.
Bitcoin (BTC) 2019
In 2019, the price initially recovered after reaching a post-bubble low of just above $3,000 in December 2018.
It already climbed above $4,000 in March, and managed to climb above $5,500 in April.
It returned to $9,000 in May, a level it had frequently reached in the previous year. In other words, in May 2019 it recovered all the excess losses accumulated in 2018 from the bursting of the bubble and returned to November 2017 levels.
June 2019 was a bit of an odd month as the launch of Facebook’s crypto project was announced which then failed last year. It was an anomalous event, so much so that after nearly $14,000, the price of Bitcoin returned to $9,000 in September.
It also dipped below $7,000 between November and December, but only to return above $9,000 in January 2020. It should be noted that when the trend is bearish, the price of Bitcoin often falls at the end of the year and then generally recovers a bit. with the beginning of the new year.
2023 Crypto Market Predictions
Imagining a possible similar trend in 2023 and extending it to the entire crypto market, one would expect an initial +30%, which has already happened, followed by another +35%, which has also already happened.
In fact, compared to a low of $15,500 in 2022, the price of Bitcoin in 2023 has already made an initial +30% to $20,000, followed by +35%, taking it all the way to $27,000.
So the first two increases in 2023 match the first two increases in 2019 almost perfectly in percentage terms.
The third increase in 2019 was 60%, so if it also happens in 2023 starting at current values, the price of Bitcoin could continue to $43,000, with the crypto market cap expected to skyrocket to nearly $1 trillion.
However, note that both percentage increases and decreases vary between bitcoin and crypto market cap, so the only thing that is generally consistent is the general trend of growth or decline.
Therefore, as far as the crypto market is concerned, it can be said that if a trend similar to that of 2019 were to repeat itself in 2023, its capitalization could still grow a lot.
On the other hand, the last two months of the year could be characterized by a 30% or 35% drop in the price of Bitcoin, again only if the 2023 trend replicates the 2019 trend. However, this loss could be recovered as early as January 2024.
In other words, it is possible that 2023 will be characterized by several months of further growth compared to current values, followed by a period of lateralization that may end in a decline at the end of the year.
Source: Cryptonomist
